Alcoa News

Found an interesting article this morning about Alcoa's weaker earnings at yesterdays close.

Wall Street on Wednesday took back a piece of Tuesday's record gains after missed estimates from blue-chip aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. and a profit warning from International Paper Co.

"We're beginning to see some negative earnings reports come out," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.

"Percentage-wise, I would expect more disappointments than pleasant surprises, so for the next week or so we could see this market give up 3% to 5% on slower earnings growth," Cardillo said.

 

Full article here.

Over Excited

Wow, can't believe how much the markets are up. The only significant piece of news today was the unemployment rate which stayed the same at 4.7%  It's funny how the general public of traders over react to good news and always over reacts on bad news.

 

These reports that came out today aren't the "holy grail" were looking for to determine if we're going into a recession or not or if the feds need to cut rates again. There is no "holy grail" that will let us know everything is ok. Only time will let us know what's going on and the more time we have the more it'll help build confidence or fear into people. So far it looks to be building confidence, doesn't mean we'll stay confident in the future though.

 

I'd like there to be some kind of sell off at the end of the day. That'll tell me that people recognize this upswing as too much and start taking profits. If not, then this could lead into next week and then maybe have some kind of sell off next weak. Either way it'll happen it's just a matter of when.

 

Overall we're looking good. Dow, SP, Nasdaq are all up big, volatility is down almost 2 points. How long will this last?

Inflation?

Who know's what will happen. But when you have signs of it, it should be brought to light. Gold has been increasing a lot lately which isn't a good sign. Sure, people are making money but for the overall economy the rise of Gold in my opinion is not a good thing to see rise. It represents Fear and Inflation. Bonds are still increasing along with Gold, a bad combination since Bonds generally represent the opposite of Gold.

 

When you have Bonds rising along with Gold to me those are signs of a bearish market or signs of one is coming. Even with the fud rate cut both are still rising. CPI index today was lower than normal. Now, it wasn't a whole lot lower, but it was lower. Is this the beginning stages of inflation in the future? I don't know. But I'm keeping a close eye on both Gold and Bonds. Ideally, I want to see Gold start declining over the next couple months while bonds steadily climb.

 

As you can see from the charts below, Bonds were declining in May and June ahead of the August mortgage crisis while Gold was increasing in June and July ahead of the mortgage crisis. A good sign a bad thing is coming, and it did. Now we have both starting to climb together and Bonds even look like they're declining a slight bit this month, another bad sign. Who knows...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

edit: Decided to throw a chart of the S&P 500 in here since it's a good indicator of things to come compared to Bonds. Bonds look to be declining slightly according to the chart above, while the S&P 500 is rising in the same time frame. The fed cut rate skewed the results but if the S&P keeps up this upward climb while Bonds slowly decline and Gold keeps increasing. A perfect setup of a bear market. I'm not predicting anything as I don't know what will happen, but keep your eyes peeled, I know I will.

 

 

Dow Falls

This is just a note to myself for the record I guess. I have a weird feeling about tomorrow. I'm getting a feeling the Dow will fall a lot,..like, way more than normal. I hope I'm wrong.

BIDU's Competitor isn't GOOG

Something I need to keep an eye on in the future.

 

Sina Corp. (SINA) operates China's biggest news portal, making it the go-to site for news from celebrity gossip to takeovers. As of Oct. 1 it could become the most profitable platform for Chinese blogger's.

 

Sina's move to monetize its massive blog page view inventory (more than 200 million page views a day) puts it on the same playing field as Baidu.com Inc. ( BIDU) , which has been building its "Ad Alliance," sites that run Baidu advertisements.

 

Full report.

 

 

Rate Cut- Yes or No?

The case for a rate cut:

-The global credit system still needs help

-Problems in the housing and real-estate industries are spreading into the broader economy

-The broader economy is slowing down

-Lenders need time to understand how bad their problems are

 

Why the Feds shouldn't cut rates:

-It would bail out the stupid's :)

-It would boost inflation

-The U.S. economy isn't that weak

-Some financial pain is necessary

 

For an in depth view of each point, check out the MSN money article

Trouble in Northern Rock

Looks like this bank in the U.K. is having a hard time handing out money for loans. They've had to rely on the central bank in England to bail them out.

 

They keep assuring their customers everything is OK but that didn't stop all these people from rushing to withdrawal as much as they could.

 

I wonder how this will pan out next week.

 

 

SIE- Sierra Health Services

Stock looks good to me. I like everything about how this is being setup right now. RSI is on a good upward run. MACD is showing some decent momentum.

 

The 200 day ema is on an upward trend and the 50 day looks like it's on it's way to starting an upward trend. I would however, like to see it pullback to about 41.60 or so back to it's support levels.  Volume has been good all this week along with most of the stocks out there. The Dow has had a great gain this week. I believe it's up at least 2% so far this week.

 

BIIB- Time to Bail

BIIB was downgraded today by UBS from Neutral to Sell. Might be a good time to get out of this stock or even consider shorting it back down. Volume has been declining this week except for today. Nice bullish spike in volume which is a bummer since the downgrade wasn't announced until after hours. After hours BIIB is now down 1.00 at 64.40. A 1.53% decline.

 

MACD is also showing the beginning of a downward trend. RSI looks strong but because of the bullish volume today. Tomorrow's close should be completely different. Stock is also coming down from it's resistance level of around 66. There isn't much support until 59 where the stock might catch itself.

 

 

CNEH- China Natural Petroleum Holdings

This stock had a nice run up over the last couple weeks. It spiked on news that this holding had explored unknown areas and came out successful with oil in the area they were exploring. Along with earnings jumping 100's of percentage points.

There are two different points where pullbacks are obvious and it continues to climb. I think there might be a pullback a little bit bigger than those it's already had. Even if it does pullback, I don't know how much steam it'll have in the future to keep going uphill. Next couple days will be good indications of what's going on here. I'll check back in on this on Monday and see how it does.

 

 

Technorati Tags: cneh , stock chart , stock pick , stocks

Retail Sales Report

Retail Report is set to be released on September 14th at 8:30am eastern time. This is going to be a big deal. I think it'll have the same impact as the jobs report came out a few days ago. Good or bad I think this will either make or break that day.

 

The prior report came in at a 0.3% gain. Estimates are at around 0.6% by briefing.com and the market consensus is 0.5%

 

The retail sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores. The changes in retail sales are widely followed as the most timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Retail sales are often viewed ex-autos, as auto sales can move sharply from month-to-month. It is also important to keep an eye on the gas and food components, where changes in sales are often a result of price changes rather than shifting consumer demand.

Retail sales can be quite volatile and the advance reports are subject to rather large revisions. Retail sales do not include spending on services, which makes up over half of total consumption. Total personal consumption is not available until the personal income and consumption reports are released, typically two weeks after retail sales. briefing.com

Technorati Tags: retail sales report , economic news , stocks

CPHD- CEPHEID

This looks good but not as good as the other two posted earlier. It has a nice steady upward trend going on. Some solid support at 18.75 or so. Which would be the ideal point to get in. There is some resistance at 12.35 and 19.80 but it's fairly weak and I don't think it would have too hard of a problem breaking through.

The chart looks like it handled the month of August fairly well. Which is a good sign that it can handle bad economic situations and has strength. In fact, there looks like it had an abnormal amount of shares being bought in early August.

I'd say a more of a mid-long range pick. I'll keep this one on the back burner and see how it works out.

 

 

Technorati Tags: cphd , stock pick , stocks , long term

OSTK- Overstock.com, Inc.

Now this is a good looking stock. Tons of support, 22.80 looks to be the key point to get in. The stock is trading just above it's lower trend line. It's low today bounce right off the trend line which adds more confidence of the lower trend line. 22.80 is a perfect time to get in for a swing trade.

There's hardly any resistance for this stock so it shouldn't have a hard time on keeping it's upward momentum going. The second half of August has been trading on light volume yet it's still heading up, a sign to me of volatility. However, today finished with a above normal amount of bullish volume.

This looks like another swing trade candidate. I'll see if it hits my price targets or not.

 

 

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ZNH- China Southern Airlines Company Limited

ZNH has strong support in the $61 dollar range. Looks like it might be in the making of a pullback from $64. 61 would be an ideal entry point. Resistance is very minimal, not enough to worry about.

Only thing I don't like about ZNH is that it's only trading around 80,000 shares. MACD looks like momentum might be slowing down.

This looks like a good swing trade opportunity. I'll see if this comes down in price over the next couple days. If it does I'll buy a small position in this and ride it a couple days.

Be sure to do your own research first.

 

 

Technorati Tags: znh , stock , stock pick