Sept 20th- Setup Recaps

These stocks did ok for the most part. The were was a little rally for the day so that probably helped. Here's a screen shot recap of yesterday and today's action in the same pic. The days are divided by the Black vertical line.

 

CHCG:

The yellow lines represent key levels from the day before and some for today. You can see how today's action bounces around these levels. Didn't quite break out like I thought it would but it doesn't make sense that it would now that I look at the results. It did however break yesterdays high but couldn't get any higher. I'd like to have seen it keep making consistent higher highs but it didn't have the strength.

 

 

DRYS:

Text book breakout. Tight consolidation the day before and you can see right out the gate it pierced the key high level of the day before it took off. Some small pullbacks along the way but it stayed strong. Volume also represents the action. The day before it was light and weak, then on the breakout, volume increased heavily. By far the best one of the group.

 

HTV:

Not much action here. It stayed about neutral for most of the day. Volume is still stable from the day before as well as the action being traded in between key levels from the day before. Couldn't quite break yesterdays high but didn't break yesterdays low either. Neutral for the moment. Maybe it'll show a sign on Monday.

 

NVDA:

This guy didn't do too bad. Broke yesterdays high and sustained a nice peak, came back down to ride yesterdays high as support and fell to about the mid point of the day. Volume picked up a little more to account for the price action which is a good thing to see.

 

Setups for this morning

I've gone over about 80-100 charts real quick to setup my high and low alerts. As I was going through them a few charts popped out at me that I really liked. These stocks I'll be keeping a closer eye on throughout tomorrows day.

CHCG: Low @ 4.05, High @ 4.30

-Made a giant swing from the highs of the day out the open rounded out the bottom and ended the day back at the open levels. If it breaks 4.30 and stays there we could see this head up more throughout the day. I'll be watching.

DRYS: Low @ 75.30, High @ 76.50

-Some decent consolidation. While the markets were slowing this one stayed still and traded in a very tight range. Looks to me like a setup for a breakout either way.

HTV: Low @ 25.50, High @ 25.70

-Huge consolidation. Looks like it might be setup to move big either way. This one might be my favorite. Looking forward to see what happens with this.

NVDA: Low @ 33.70, High @ 34.50

More consolidation. I'd like to see a move on one of these but we'll see what happens. Out of all those charts I looked like these stood out like a sore thumb. Maybe something good will happen :-)

If either of theses Lows or Highs are broken tomorrow we could potentially see some nice moves in either direction (long/short). The Q's gapped up post market which isn't a sign I want to see. I think we might see the market open lower out the gate tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday.

* Just because these stocks break these highs or lows I've set, doesn't mean I'll be trading them. It means that they've gotten my attention and I'll be waiting patiently for an entry point, if one isn't present, I won't trade.

Not much action

I only setup about 10 or so trades with price alerts but only a couple hit but not much action happened after that. The Q's hit my high of 50.25 but quickly fell and now it looks like that'll be the new high of the day (it's 11:30am PST)

 

I'm organizing together a master trade book of all my trades, wins/losses, good trades bad trades, notes, psychology notes, market analysis stuff like that. This will help me in developing a personal trading history with what works for me and what doesn't, personal patterns, etc. I spent some time last night creating a cover sheet for my book. I'm getting it laminated today to put on my binder/book. I've been keeping a log for some time now, I'm just taking it to the next step.

 

I'll update this post with a screen cap of the Q's later at the close. It's pretty much the only chart I've been following today since nothing else is going on.

 

 

I can easily spend all do doing this to all kinds of charts but it's a little time consuming and I have some notes to consolidate. This is a quick shot of the Q's today. The cut off is at 12:30 PST, so everything after that isn't accounted for. I hope you can see what I tried to outline, I can make it full res but I'm sure it blow out your margins since I'm using a 22in wide screen (the reason why my pics might look so big). In case you do what the full picture it's uploaded here.

 

Now, on to deciphering this mumbo jumbo. The Green boxes represent consolidation which will either determine a significant price move higher or lower. The Blue circles represent key psychological points where, as you can, they tend to be on the same level across the board. As the top circles started getting lower over time the stock eventually started going lower as people weren't feeling the value of the Q's were worth those previous levels. The Red line represents a key pivot point throughout the day. As you can see, the stock is either above it using it as support or below it using it as resistance, they're key points here. The Purple line at the bottom represents the low of the day and how it bounces up and consolidates then goes back up again to just below the mid day levels. Yellow Arrows represent key points in the stock breaking key psychological levels. Big moves happened when these were broke.

 

This gives you a good glimpse of what I keep an eye out when I'm watching charts in real time. I'm constantly drawing out new levels and key points and I wait for the stock to either confirm that particular levels strength or to confirm it's weakness.

 

I only did this because I've always wanted to spend some time visualizing what I was thinking about in the past so I can get a full perspective of my thoughts on the day, and because it was a slow day :-)  But since this takes a while, I'll probably only be doing this on trades I actually make.

No Trades, Only Trade Plans

Didn't make any trades today. I was watching 6 charts before the Bernanke announced the rate cut and right when it was announced every single stock sky rocketed and i had new high alerts going off like crazy. It was kinda cool to see. I didn't know when he was going to announce but once I saw all the activity, I knew what happened.

I've been focusing a lot on my trading setup and planning out my trades. Something I've been deviating from and I need a couple days off to re focus and get back on track. I've got about 10 stocks I have setup right now. This is what they are.

AIRN- low alert at 2.08

ANO- Low alert at 2.95

AZK- Low alert at 2.45

CHCG- Low alert at 4.72

CNEH- Low alert at 3.25

DIA- Low alert 134.50 (I won't be trading this, just want to know if it gets here. Very bad if it does, lol)

HEPH- Low alert at 2.13 (crucial pivot point) and then a Low alert at 2.05 for a potential buy

LUM- Low alert at 1.75

NABI- Low alert at 4.12

NFLD- Low alert at 1.85

QQQQ- Low alert at 49.00 (again, won't be trading this just want to know if it gets here)

RMDX- Low alert at 2.47

SCON- Low alert at 5.55 and High alert at 5.70

All of these price points came from the analysis of support, resistance and pivot point levels based on intra day charts and 6 month charts. If a stock hits these levels all It'll tell me is that a possible trade could be setup for that given stock. I won't trade it right away when it hits these levels.

My risk is a 1% loss (of my overall portfolio) on any of these stocks and exit point will be known before I enter my trade based on the stocks activity. I'll enter a trade if I think it can make a 5-7% gain over the course of a few days.

Quick Pick Overview

Let's see how these stocks are doing. Which ones have hit the mark which ones haven't etc.

 

ZNH- Bought at 64.42 on Sept 12th close. Currently at 67.04 on the 14th close. A 4.07% gain

If I bought this stock at a lower price like I initially thought, no trade would of happened as it's only gone up from the date I looked at it. Momentum has came to a halt, RSI is still rising and both the 50 and 200 day EMA's are still going strong. Bullish volume has increased for the 14th.

 

OSTK- Bought at 23.64 on Sept 12th close. Currently at 24.17 on the 14th close. A 2.24% gain

If I bought this stock at a lower price it wouldn't of happened as it's kept heading up like ZNH. OSTK volume have been slightly declining the last couple days.

 

CPHD- Bought at 20.04 on Sept 12th close. Currently at 20.21 on the 14th close. A 0.85% gain.

This never hit my entry point. This is looking fairly neutral. Big sign is momentum has come to a stop however the EMA's are looking solid. Who knows what will happen.

 

CNEH- This stock also hasn't hit my entry point but we'll assume that we bought it at the market close on Sept 12 at 3.00. Currently at 2.86 a loss of -4.67%

 

This stock is so overbought. I'd still look for a pullback on this next week. Volume has declined today on negative volume along with the RSI finally starting to look down now and come back to normal levels. I like this one. I'll be keeping a good eye on it next week.

 

BARE- Bought at 27.64 on Sept 12th currently at 26.84 a loss of -2.89%

 

It's looking like it's making it's way back down but still not enough to hit my entry point. RSI is still heading down. MACD look's like momentum might be shifting downward. Both EMA's still look they're on the verge of crossing.

 

 

Looks like I need to focus more on the overall market conditions when helping to pick entry points. Overall the market has been pretty good. Dow has seen a solid 2.5% or so gain this week. It makes sense that a lot of the stocks would go with the flow of the market and keep slowly heading up. I need to get out of my tunnel vision when picking low entry points in a stock where the market conditions are looking good.

NCIT- NCI Inc

This is looking a lot more volatile than the others. EMA's are heading in a nice upward trend as well as the overall stock. It's been moving relative to it's volume. The last couple days have been stalling on lower volume. MACD looks like it's running out of steam.

 

I want to see this pullback lower before I get in. 17.25 area or so or whenever the momentum starts to show positive signs.

 

MR- Bullish Breakout?

MR has been riding it's upper trendline for the last week or so. 50 day EMA has been heading up steadily the last couple months same with the 200 day EMA. RSI looks good along with the MACD indicating some nice momentum.

MR is up 1% at 38.43. If it closes today above the trend line and with some strong volume, to go with it, we might see a nice breakout over the next week leading up to Sept 18th.

I think this could be a solid swing trade. I'll check in on it later.

BARE- Breakout?

Looking pretty good here. It's rounding out the bottom and starting to lift off support from 24.87. There is some resistance ahead but nothing that's really worthy until it gets close to 36 bucks.

MACD is showing nice momentum. It's definitely breaking out from it's downward trend, or trying too anyway. Volume is ok but I'd like to see it pickup as the price increases.

The two EMA's are on the path of crossing, if this keeps up, it might explode to the upside next week.

 

 

 

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CNEH- China Natural Petroleum Holdings

This stock had a nice run up over the last couple weeks. It spiked on news that this holding had explored unknown areas and came out successful with oil in the area they were exploring. Along with earnings jumping 100's of percentage points.

There are two different points where pullbacks are obvious and it continues to climb. I think there might be a pullback a little bit bigger than those it's already had. Even if it does pullback, I don't know how much steam it'll have in the future to keep going uphill. Next couple days will be good indications of what's going on here. I'll check back in on this on Monday and see how it does.

 

 

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ZNH- China Southern Airlines Company Limited

ZNH has strong support in the $61 dollar range. Looks like it might be in the making of a pullback from $64. 61 would be an ideal entry point. Resistance is very minimal, not enough to worry about.

Only thing I don't like about ZNH is that it's only trading around 80,000 shares. MACD looks like momentum might be slowing down.

This looks like a good swing trade opportunity. I'll see if this comes down in price over the next couple days. If it does I'll buy a small position in this and ride it a couple days.

Be sure to do your own research first.

 

 

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